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and the numbers are....

Here is some interesting news from our in house mortgage broker at Douglas Elliman.Email me if you want his contact information. RATES STEADY IN PRE-HOLIDAY TRADING Economic indicators delivered mostly good news before the Labor Day holiday.  Second-quarter growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) was revised upward more than anticipated (up 3.3%), orders for big-ticket items increased (up 1.3%), and consumer confidence grew (up to 56.9).  Even the depressed housing market perked up (new home sales up 2.4% and sales of existing homes up 3.1%), signaling that its prolonged weakness may be stabilizing, although it remains too soon to declare that the corner has been turned.  On the negative side, personal incomes fell by the largest amount in nearly three years (down 0.7%) while consumer spending slowed.  On the whole, the numbers still show an economy in serious trouble.  Rates were mostly steady in pre-holiday trading.  The Fed seems to be on hold given the credit crisis and weak economy and belief that inflation will moderate.  My expectations are that with so much uncertainty prevailing in the battle between a slowing economy, rising inflation and the credit crunch, we will see moves both up and down in rate.  However, given the continued drop in commodity and energy prices my bias is toward lower rates.   Next week's economic releases begin after Labor Day with construction spending and the ISM index of manufacturing activity (Tuesday), factory orders and the Federal Reserve Board's Beige Book (Wednesday), nonfarm productivity and the ISM index of service sector activity (Thursday), plus labor market indicators (the unemployment rate and nonfarm payrolls) on Friday. · 10 year treasury yield down for the week from 3.87% to 3.81%. 2 year treasury down from 2.40% to 2.37%. · Oil up for the week from $114.59 per barrel to $115.46. Gold up from $827.40 per oz. to $829.30. · The dollar was down versus the yen from 110.06 to 108.83 and the Euro was down against the dollar at $1.4671 from $1.4774.· Stocks were down for the week (S&P500 down 0.73% to 1,282.83, Dow Jones down 0.73% to 11,543.55 and Nasdaq down 1.95% to 2,367.52).

 

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Paul Zweben, Licensed Associate RE Broker
pzweben@elliman.com
Carolyn Zweben, Licensed Associate RE Broker
czweben@elliman.com
1995 Broadway, New York, 10023

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